Saturday, 17 December 2011

NEW JOBLEE BENEFITS

California employers added a modest 6,600 new jobs in November, driving the monthly unemployment rate down to 11.3%, its lowest level since the depths of the recession in June 2009.


But economists warned that the Golden State still has a long way to go in making up for the 1.3 million jobs that disappeared over the last four years and that the road toward historic, single-digit unemployment levels could be a tough slog.


"This is an OK jobs report," said Kimberly Ritter, associate economist with the Kyser Center for Economic Research at the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp. "It's good to see the unemployment numbers coming down across the board. We're still seeing slow progress ... and at least we can say it's steady."


The decline from October's jobless rate of 11.7% marked the fourth consecutive month of California employment growth, the California Employment Development Department reported.


The EDD also noted that it revised upward to 37,600 the number of new jobs for October. In all, 211,400 jobs have been created this year, an annual growth rate of 1.7%, the EDD said.


California's unemployment rate, which far exceeded the national rate of 8.6% in November, has dropped by more than a percentage point from a high of 12.5% in December 2010.


Similar drops were registered in major regions: Los Angeles County is down to 11.9% from 13% a year ago; Riverside-San Bernardino counties to 12.5% from 14.5% a year ago; Orange County to 8.1% from 9.4% a year ago; and Ventura County to 9.5% from 10.9% a year ago.


While economists caution that some of the improvement in the November numbers could be caused by people giving up on job searches, they point to the last two weeks' decline in the number of people putting in first-time claims for unemployment insurance benefits as a positive sign that a sustained recovery is underway.


The U.S. Department of Labor reported earlier this week that monthly requests for unemployment claims fell to their lowest level since 2008.


That guarded optimism is shared by Donald Whatley of Torrance, a furniture manufacturing production manager laid off in the spring. Whatley, 54, said he feels that the job climate is getting better, even though he's yet to be rehired.


An estimated 93,000 jobless Michiganians would lose their extended federal unemployment benefits in January under a bill from Midland Republican Rep. Dave Camp approved by the House on Wednesday. When combined with state cuts signed in March by Gov. Rick Snyder that also take effect next month, jobless workers in the state would go from getting 99 weeks of unemployment checks now to a maximum of 46 weeks.


Under Camp's "Middle Class Tax Relief & Job Creation Act, " jobless workers also could be forced to pursue a high school equivalency diploma or take drug tests, if states desire.


"I've been to Michigan enough to know this is not an economy with job openings for another 93,000 people," says Jacob Bernstein, a senior fellow at Washington's nonpartisan Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.


According to a new analysis by the U.S. Department of Labor, Camp's bill, which heads to the Senate, would end unemployment payments to 3.3 million unemployed U.S. workers.


"Whether it's Michigan or the nation, there just aren't enough jobs to go around," Bernstein says. "The numbers are crystal clear: There's four unemployed people for every job opening."


The persistent lack of new jobs plays out in Michigan's job numbers. Since November 2010, unemployment in the state has dropped by 84,000. But only 12,000 of those workers — one of every seven — landed a job. The rest either gave up looking for work, retired, died, went back to school or moved out of state.


"The work force in the state has fallen about 2 percent in the past year," says Bruce Weaver, an analyst with the Michigan Department of Technology, Management & Budget. "When the work force falls like that, it contributes to a downward movement in the unemployment rate."


The November rate is the first to fall below 10percent since November 2008, when the state jobless rate was 9.9 as the recession entered its first full year. But even then, the state had 239,000 more workers with jobs than it does now, two-and-a-half years after the end of the Great Recession.


Despite the official end of the downturn, the average time it takes unemployed workers to find a new job has grown. When the recession ended in June 2009, the average duration for unemployment was 24 weeks. Today it's at 41 weeks.


In the meantime, some lawmakers have run out of patience, money or both to help those without a paycheck.


In Michigan, basic state unemployment benefits were cut from 26 to 20 weeks, to help lower taxes on businesses which, backers argued, would help create jobs. It left Michigan offering the shortest duration of unemployment aid in the nation. But economists point out that the lost benefits mean lower economic activity, as unemployed consumers spend less. Instead of helping to boost spending, cuts to benefits can end up costing jobs.


"The state program cuts cost unemployed workers between $200million to $400 million in lost benefits," says Michael Evangelist, a policy analyst in Ann Arbor with the National Employment Law Project.


The state's action also cut the benefits workers receive under the formulas for federal aid that picks up when state benefits end.


"In Michigan, we lost six weeks in state benefits right off the top, and then it's an additional 13 weeks of federal benefits," Evangelist says.

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