Taiwan presidential election to affect cross-strait politics

Beijing could try to punish Taiwan if Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) wins the election on Saturday, a US academic told a conference in Washington.
Chinese policy toward Taiwan is personally associated with Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) and a Tsai victory would be seen as a setback for him, Phil Saunders, director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the Institute for National Strategic Studies, told the Heritage Foundation conference.
This situation could lead others in Beijing to push for tougher policies, he said.
“There are various things the mainland could do to punish Taiwan and the question is how will they use their leverage and try to shape the relationship,” Saunders said, adding that Beijing had “economic, political and diplomatic” leverage over Taiwan.
China might want to “put some hurt” on Taiwan, he said.
In the case of a Tsai victory, he said, there would be efforts to negotiate terms for a new relationship and the US would work to “deter either side from taking military steps or provocative steps.”
Saunders said Washington would leave Beijing and Taipei alone to work out the details of a new arrangement.


The key lies in the uniqueness of 2012. For the first time since Taiwan introduced direct presidential elections in 1996, both sides of the Taiwan Strait will witness top leadership changes this year.


In October, the CCP will hold its 18th Party Congress and unveil a new leadership line-up. Seven of the nine members in the Politburo Standing Committee, the party's most powerful body, are likely to retire, including Hu.


And like it or not, say analysts, the confluence of the CCP congress and Taiwan presidential election will create ripple effects that cannot be ignored.


In particular, the fortunes of the two incumbent leaders — Hu and Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou — are interlocked.


“A Ma win will be good for Hu because he has been leading cross-strait policies in the past few years,” said Beijing-based observer Li Fan, who is in Taiwan to study the election. He heads the World and China Institute, a private think tank.


Hu chairs the Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs in the CCP's Central Committee, an inner group which takes charge of mainland China's cross-strait affairs.


Its strategy has been marked by a major rapprochement during Ma's first four-year term, with 16 agreements signed and a six-decade ban on direct air, sea and postal links lifted.


The landmark economic cooperation framework agreement trade deal was also inked between Beijing and Taipei. This opened the way for Taiwan to reach an investment pact with Japan, its second-biggest trading partner last September, and Taipei is now in talks with Singapore, New Zealand, India and Indonesia.