Taiwan election too close to call as China and US watch on

TAIPEI, Taiwanese elections — Candidates in Taiwan’s closely fought presidential election appealed for last-minute support Friday, with President Ma Ying-jeou offering his vision of better relations with China, and his main challenger attempting to galvanize resentment over growing income inequality.


Amid swirling campaign banners and cheering crowds, Ma and Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party crisscrossed the island ahead of a contest that pits Ma’s experience against Tsai’s populism.


Eighteen million Taiwanese are eligible to vote in Saturday’s election, with results expected by about 10 p.m.


Opinion surveys published a week ago — the last permitted under Taiwanese law — showed Ma clinging to a slim 3-4 percentage point lead that was within the statistical margin of error, despite Tsai never having won an election for public office in Taiwan.


The US has not formally indicated a preference, but analysts say Washington is clearly hoping for another KMT victory.


Ma's leadership has seen the introduction of the first direct flights, postal services and shipping routes for six decades and an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement to ease trade. Beijing has even sent across a pair of giant pandas, whose names together mean "reunion".


But critics say his presidency has otherwise been lacklustre, citing issues such as the government's handling of Typhoon Morakot in 2008. Growth quickly returned following the same year's financial crisis, but incomes are barely recovering, bolstering claims that Ma, 61, has been good for big business but bad for the ordinary worker.


While outsiders contemplate the election's impact on international security, Taiwan's 18 million voters seem more interested in their employment and income prospects.


"The political issues date back many decades, but it's not an issue these candidates can solve in a day. For people the only thing that matters is economic stability," says Zhang, the fortune teller.


The savvy campaign by the DPP, traditionally strong in the agricultural South and working classes, has focused on economic and social justice rather than Taiwanese identity. Tsai's calm competence — the 51-year-old is a former academic with an LSE doctorate, as well as an experienced negotiator — has impressed swing voters turned off the party by its in-fighting and corruption claims (former president Chen Shui-bian is in jail for money laundering and misuse of public funds).


The race is complicated by the third candidate, James Soong of the People First Party, who cannot win but could become kingmaker if the PFP picks up enough seats. Tsai has floated the idea of a coalition.


The DPP leader has also toned down the party's rhetoric on cross-straits relations to counter the KMT's suggestion that voters must choose between stability and uncertainty.


"We don't want to provoke China as the previous administration did for eight years. It will not do any good for Taiwan," Ma told reporters on Thursday.


Although Beijing has been strikingly quiet so far — attempts to exert influence have backfired in previous elections — the opposition claims authorities have pressured businessmen based on the mainland to support the KMT.


Should the DPP win, "Tsai will not want to rock the boat and the US and China will not want to undo four years of improving ties," suggested Jonathan Sullivan of the University of Nottingham, whose Ballots and Bullets blog has chronicled the campaign.