Tuesday 17 January 2012

Ron Paul in 2012 mirrors Jerry Brown

SAN FRANCISCO — Consider the presidential candidate who campaigns as a feisty contrarian, the “anti-politician” with “new vision” — a fiscal miser and free-thinker who talks about ending big-money politics and shaking up his party, while attracting hordes of young voters.


Sound like Texas Republican Ron Paul in 2012?


No, that was Democratic presidential candidate Jerry Brown — in 1992.


Brown, 73, the third-term governor of California, made three runs for the presidency as a political maverick — in 1976, 1980 and 1992. Paul, 76, currently on his third run for the White House, ran in 1988 as a Libertarian, and again in 2008 as a Republican.


While they have widely divergent political viewpoints, Paul and Brown have displayed uncanny similarities in messaging, youth appeal, grassroots fundraising and social media outreach in their rebellious presidential campaigns — in which both have challenged their own party’s establishment.


Brown’s 1992 call to “take back America from the confederacy of corruption, careerism and campaign consulting in Washington” echoes the same populist themes as Paul’s. And Brown’s proposed flat tax and ideas for simpler, leaner finances in government mirror some of the Texas Republican’s calls.


Indeed, Paul may be borrowing some of his playbook from Brown, who sold himself as the “un-candidate” in his 1992 presidential drive — and whose record may teach Paul a thing or two about “revolution” politics in this year’s GOP race.


“Jerry Brown was Ron Paul before Ron Paul was Ron Paul,” said Phil Trounstine, a veteran California political analyst who covered Brown’s 1992 presidential run and who now co-publishes Calbuzz.com, a politics website.


“Jerry was different from the political establishment — and that’s Ron Paul,” said Martin Nolan, who has covered presidential elections since 1968 whose work as a Boston Globe reporter was chronicled in Timothy Crouse’s seminal book on political journalism, “The Boys on the Bus.”


The past presidential ambitions of Brown, and the current drive by Paul, may also underscore the potential impacts of “movement” politics — personality-driven and sometimes unconventional campaigns that can attract passionate followers.


While former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney increasingly looks to be on his way to becoming the GOP nominee, observers say Paul is almost certain to continue to challenge the front-runner while leveraging his support, clout and issues - perhaps all the way to the GOP national convention in August.


With former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Gov. Rick Perry splitting the social-conservative base, "it's hard to see how any of the alternatives (to Romney) survive, except maybe Ron Paul - who's like a Jerry Brown in 1992 because he has a solid base of support among young people," said Matthew Eshbaugh-Soha, associate professor of political science at the University of North Texas.


Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll in California, calls Paul's support among under-30 voters "the most striking thing" about his candidacy.


Among under-30 voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, Paul won nearly half the vote, hammering Romney in that demographic. DiCamillo attributes Paul's success with young voters in those states to his "libertarian positions on social issues and his anti-interventionist foreign policy."


"In a kind of odd way, Paul is the anti-establishment candidate," DiCamillo said. That's a label that traditionally has stuck to Democratic candidates, including Brown and Sens. Eugene McCarthy and Bobby Kennedy in 1968, and Gary Hart in his 1984 run against Walter Mondale.


Trounstine said Brown, like Paul, excited his base with an appeal to take big money out of politics.


Paul has used innovations like online "money bomb" appeals to reach grassroots donors - two decades after Brown adviser Joe Trippi launched an 800 phone number to attract small donors. And two decades before Paul's team effectively harnessed social media, Trippi signed Brown up for the first-ever online political chat with his followers - in 1992.


"Jerry Brown was plugged in to new networks, and Paul has done the same thing," said Nolan, a San Francisco resident who covered Brown's 1976 and 1980 presidential bids.


Right until the end of his last run, Brown sharply criticized the man who would be his party's nominee - Bill Clinton. Paul has not shrunk from criticizing Romney, leading to speculation he may take his campaign all the way to the GOP convention.

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