Pre-Caucus GOP Looming, Unpredictable Iowa Race Could Have More Surprises

Credible and serious presidential candidate from one of the major political parties -- in fact, his party's current frontrunner -- feels the need to make a public declaration that he will be faithful to his marriage vows. It's a fair assumption that he has done so not to get closer to God, but because he thinks the stunt could get him one step closer to the White House. And, given that this candidate has twice before broken his marriage vows, when you think about it, what he's really saying is that he promises to be more faithful to voters than he was to his first two wives.
The best that you can hope for from presidential campaigns is that they're empowering, enlightening, and engaging. Sadly, with this detour into fidelity pledges, the current Republican contest has gone right to embarrassing.


As a presidential candidate, Newt Gingrich has been fairly unflappable. He can take a punch, and hit back twice as hard -- usually in the same news cycle. He stands his ground in debates, even when he's being fired upon from all directions.
And yet, now, apparently, something has rattled Gingrich: the possibility that his well-publicized marital shortcomings could undermine his appeal in a conservative state like Iowa.
Think of it this way: Republicans want to beat Obama. They just don't want the drama. And so Gingrich's opponents have made it their mission to stir up that very thing -- focusing on the former House speaker's personal life.


In the past month, the former House Speaker has actually become more unpopular among independents and Democrats alike, raising questions about his ability to win the general election. This past week, a University of Iowa poll, while not rated highly enough for air by ABC News, showed that Gingrich’s support in the state had declined from its recent peaks, a trend that the pollsters cited as an indication that “his support may be starting to slide, as it has with previous frontrunners.”
Other roadblocks lie ahead, too. In Iowa, the evangelical vote is key. In the 2008 caucuses, 60 percent of GOP voters identified themselves as evangelicals, a huge presence that propelled Mike Huckabee to victory there over Romney. The Arkansas governor secured 46 percent of evangelical support, compared to just 19 percent for Romney. To date, Iowa evangelicals have yet to rally around a single candidate, leaving a potentially major shift still up in the air.
Then there is the unique nature of Iowa’s caucuses, a voting process that puts an emphasis on organizational power. With nearly 1,800 caucuses taking place across the state on Jan. 3, one candidate’s superior organization can lead to a far higher voter turnout than a candidate who struggles to get out the vote.
The straw poll in August is seen as a test both of a candidate’s ability to inspire enough passion in voters to win their vote and enough organizational might to get them to Ames, Iowa, but the poll’s victor — Bachmann — has faded badly. However, Paul, the runner-up that day, has steadily placed in the top tier in Iowa polls. Plus, the Texas congressman only lost the straw poll by a scant 152 votes. And consider this: In 2008, the second-place finisher was none other than Huckabee, the eventual caucus winner.
With so much still up for grabs in Iowa, perhaps that is why every candidate except Jon Huntsman has elected to make a determined push for a caucus victory. Neither Gingrich nor Romney has spent a great deal of time there, but the former Massachusetts governor has a volunteer army engaging in door-to-door combat for him, and Gingrich has lately ramped up his operation in the state. Other candidates such as Paul, Bachmann, Perry and Rick Santorum have logged countless hours in Iowa over the past five months. Perry, in fact, just launched a whirlwind bus tour that, save a brief stop for Christmas, will keep the Texas governor in the state right up until caucus day.