Prdections: For Gingrich, no bombast or apologies

Washington D.C. : Despite trailing Newt Gingrich by 15 percentage points in Republican preferences for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination, Mitt Romney slightly edges out the former House speaker by 39% to 35% in Republican registered voters' predictions of who will ultimately win. However, this is a shift from early November, when nearly half named Romney, 13% Herman Cain, and 4% Gingrich.


The Dec. 1-5 survey includes results from 1,227 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote. No candidate besides Romney and Gingrich is currently a contender in the expectations battle. A combined 11% of Republican voters name some other candidate, while 15% are unsure. Cain is mentioned by 1% of respondents; his name was included in the question from Dec. 1-3, but removed on Dec. 4 after he formally suspended his campaign.


Romney led Cain, 47% to 13%, in predictions of who would win in Gallup's previous measure in early November. Cain tied Romney for the lead at that time in Republican nomination preferences, with Gingrich a distant third.


The Iowa Republican senator’s predictions mirror a recent Des Moines Register poll of Iowa voters that finished with Mr. Gingrich in the lead, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in a statistical tie with Texas congressman Ron Paul.


Mr. Grassley does believe the former House speaker has an excellent shot to win the Iowa caucuses, however, he cautioned not to be surprised if Mr. Gingrich continues to “rise and fall” in his popularity among voters in Iowa and nationally.


Polls of Iowa voters in recent weeks have shown that 60 percent of voters could still change their minds in selecting a candidate on January 3rd.


“We have seen the rise and fall of Newt Gingrich several times. The reason he is able to do it I think is because he is just totally consistent and persistent,” Mr. Grassley stated Wednesday.


The former Georgia lawmaker picked up some key Iowan conservative endorsements this week, including one from Charlie Gruschow, also known as “Tea Party Charlie,” founder and chairman of the Tea Party of America and leader of the Des Moines Tea Party.


Mr. Gruschow is a former supporter of pizza magnate Herman Cain, which could signal a transfer of former Cain supporters to the Gingrich campaign; another positive for the former House speaker in the state with the nation’s first caucus vote.


When asked about Mr. Romney’s chances of winning Iowa, Mr. Grassley said the former Massachusetts governor would have to prove his conservative credibility to win over Republican voters in Iowa and nationally.


“I think he will have plenty of opportunity to show his conservative credentials. So it is the extent to which conservatives are not satisfied,” Mr. Grassley said.