Wednesday, 11 January 2012

Election results from New Hampshire primary

Derided for much of 2011 as a feeble imitation of a Republican presidential front-runner, Mitt Romney is now well on his way to the GOP nomination. He has won both Iowa and New Hampshire. His opponents are divided and at a financial disadvantage. They may be able to slow Romney in South Carolina, but it’s unlikely they can derail him altogether.


But the toughest challenges still in front of Romney aren’t his opponents. They’re the doubts and deficiencies that have nagged at his candidacy since the start of the 2012 cycle and were underlined in the past 72 hours of hand-to-hand combat in New Hampshire. If Romney’s going to go into the fall as a strong standard-bearer for his party — not just a guy who successfully outfoxed a weak primary field — he’ll have to address some of his persistent weaknesses sooner rather than later.
Here are five of the most pressing questions facing the not-quite-presumptive Republican presidential nominee:


Newt Gingrich says Romney “looted” companies and left workers in the lurch. Rick Perry compared Romney and his Bain Capital partners to economic “vultures,” feeding on the corpses of weak companies. Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz has branded Romney a “job cremator.”
In the face of that seething rhetoric, Romney’s defense of his background in private equity has been approximately this: an attack on Bain is an attack on American free enterprise.
That’s a plausible enough line for a Republican primary — a contest fought among voters who basically trust the market economy. But Romney has grounded his whole campaign on the claim that he understands how to create jobs and spur investment. And now his Republican opponents are slashing away at that political identity, a task made easier by the fact that Romney has typically spoken about his business experience in only the vaguest of terms.


Thirty-five percent of New Hampshire voters said their most important issue was beating Barack Obama. Romney won 60 percent of them. He carried all groups -- from Tea Party supporters to conservatives to moderates. Despite this week's attacks on Romney's tenure at Bain, voters still seem persuaded by his argument that his business experience makes him the best candidate to handle the economy. Among the 6-in-10 voters for whom the economy was the top issue, Romney more than doubled the support of his nearest competitor.


Ron Paul won handily among young voters, getting 40 percent of the 18-29-year-old vote. He also won with voters who said voting for a "true conservative" was what motivated their vote. Paul grinned to his supporters at his election night party, and he reveled in being called "dangerous." Mitt Romney won handily, he said, "but we're nibbling at his heels."


But even if he was nibbling, the exit polls showed Paul's limitations. 55 percent of those polled in New Hampshire said they would be dissatisfied if he won the nomination. Only 37 percent said that about Romney.


In South Carolina, which votes a week from Saturday, Romney can expect 10 days of hell. South Carolina is likely to be the last stand of the anti-Romney forces, or the place where they turn the tide. Romney is likely to be the target of sustained attacks that may be the last serious assaults of the primary-season nomination battle if he does well there.


The Romney campaign is hoping that New Hampshire will validate him and sweep away the stories about Republicans unhappy with the front-runner. In the latest CBS national poll, 58 percent of Republicans say they want more presidential choices. Romney leads that poll, but with only 19 percent. In exit polls of New Hampshire voters, 31 percent said they wanted another candidate to join the race.


New Hampshire may end up acting as a shield for Romney against the recent attacks on his business career. Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, and Jon Huntsman characterized Romney as a ruthless corporate raider. Though the attacks started too late to change the New Hampshire result much, Romney can claim that New Hampshire voters heard them and decided they were without merit.

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