Obama's early proposals for a millionaire's tax, supported by Berkshire Hathway (BRK.A) billionaire Warren Buffet, were met with the demonizing "class warfare" misnomer early in the debate. Republicans successfully stifled any hope the president had of passing the tax. Then he flipped the script.
In a politically deft move, Obama married a sort-of-millionaire's tax with a payroll tax cut, forcing the opposing party to lambaste a tax cut that largely benefits the middle class in order to protect the rich from tax increases. It worked. Republicans went through a very public identity crisis within 48 hours, arguing that the tax cut doesn't work and must be paid for, contradicting two core principles of their ideology.
Jobs Numbers
How much of this is actually the president's doing is immaterial. The truth is that unemployment is at its lowest rate in more than two years, leading to a dip in concerns that his re-election bid will tank due to poor jobs figures.
That talk has quieted down slightly since Dec. 3, when new figures showed unemployment was down to 8.6 percent. It is still a far cry from the magic 7 percent threshold that has historically felled re-election bids. And the U.S. economy remains bound to the whims of a still-undetermined European government debt crisis, which still remains a strong liability in the United States, and could torpedo any recovery, however feeble.
Do Ask, Do Tell
The mandatory closeting of members of the military ended on Sept. 20, when Obama repealed the controversial policy that kept gays from serving openly. The move was hailed by liberals and civil rights advocates as a victory in a year that saw many for the gay community.
"I have always been confident that our dedicated men and women in uniform would transition to a new policy in an orderly manner that preserves unit cohesion, recruitment, retention and military effectiveness," Obama said in a statement. "Service members will no longer be forced to hide who they are in order to serve our country. Our military will no longer be deprived of the talents and skills of patriotic Americans just because they happen to be gay or lesbian."
The repeal, however, promises to be a topic of heated discussion during the 2012 election as Republicans will likely use the repeal as a wink-nudge to conservative voters.
Iraq War Ends
Obama entered the 2008 race promising to end the war in Iraq. He delivered on Dec. 18 when the last convoy of American troops left Iraq and entered Kuwait. The withdrawal came at a time when America's engagement overseas has taken a back seat to domestic economic concerns. The troops' departure lacked dramatic visuals, as the last troops left in the dead of the night. Still, in a year when Obama has few hard-fought victories, the ending of the engagement in Iraq when he could have justified a continued presence shows an obstinacy too often hidden.
Osama bin Laden: "Justice has been done."
The May 2 killing of the 9/11 mastermind bin Laden induced one of the most cathartic moments of 2011. Obama's decision to send in special forces into Abbottabad, Pakistan, to carry out a clandestine mission to kill the al-Qaida leader exorcised considerable demons that had been stewing for a decade. News of bin Laden's death (and subsequent burial at sea) sent many into the streets to celebrate.
The event could, however, be almost oxymoronic in its grandeur yet lack of political potency. Obama's predecessor would have been assured re-election with bin Laden's capture or killing. The current president's odds are much slimmer.
Mr. Obama may propose tax reform, attempting to use it to appeal both to his liberal base (a question of fairness) and independents (a reform to spur economic growth). This will fail, but not before boosting Mr. Obama's poll numbers.
• The Obama campaign won't corral high-profile Republican endorsements—as it did in 2008 with former Secretary of State Colin Powell—with the unimportant possible exception of former Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel. It will also make a special effort to diminish the GOP's advantage among military families, veterans and evangelicals, with the last a special target if Republicans nominate Mitt Romney.
To intimidate critics and provoke higher black turnout, Democrats will play the race card more than in any election since 1948. Witness Attorney General Eric Holder's recent charge that criticism of him and the president was "both due to the nature of our relationship and . . . the fact that we're both African-Americans."
The economic recovery will continue to be anemic, leaving both unemployment and concerns about whether the president is up to the job high on Election Day. Because of this, Mr. Obama will lose as his margins drop among five groups essential to his 2008 victory—independents, women, Latinos, young people and Jews. While he will win a majority from at least three of these groups, he won't win them by as much as he did last time.
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