Saturday's South Carolina primary is the last realistic chance for a social conservative to emerge as a viable alternative to Romney. But a sharp split among the state's concentration of evangelical Christians and tea party supporters has stubbornly persisted as Romney's rivals compete fiercely for them.
Rising anxiety on the right over Romney's momentum was reflected at a prayer breakfast Sunday in Myrtle Beach, attended by candidates Rick Perry and Rick Santorum.
One of the speakers, Eric Metaxas, said he hoped candidates he did not specify "will hear from God and get out of the race.
Who wants to go through this meat grinder?” asked Ken Khachigian, a veteran strategist of Republican presidential campaigns. Mr. Romney’s status as someone who “never smoked, never drank, never did drugs, stayed married to one woman,” he added, short-circuited some of that scrutiny.
A second factor was the economic difficulty that choked off the number and generosity of campaign donors. Mr. Romney had a huge head start with his personal wealth and broad network of donors — including former financial industry colleagues and fellow Mormons — that he has tended since his 2008 campaign.
“The fund-raising environment was enormously difficult,” said Phil Musser, a strategist for the short-lived campaign of former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota. Mr. Musser said potential donors “just sat on their hands” throughout 2010 as Mr. Pawlenty, initially seen as Mr. Romney’s most formidable rival, struggled to build a financial apparatus to compete.
A third factor has been the lackluster performance of two other candidates who once seemed destined to present major challenges to Mr. Romney.
Mr. Huntsman, who served as ambassador to China in the Obama administration, had trouble convincing his party that he was a true conservative, and sometimes seemed to be challenging its message. Mr. Perry briefly stood atop the polls and challenged Mr. Romney’s fund-raising dominance before his “oops” brain freeze in a debate in November undercut his credibility.
“The one guy with excellent potential turned out to be a gaffe monster,” said Daron Shaw, a political scientist at the University of Texas who was a campaign adviser to the younger Mr. Bush.
A final obstacle has been the unruly nature of Tea Party-era Republicans. Just as Speaker John A. Boehner has struggled to control the House Republican caucus, would-be White House contenders face the daunting challenge of winning over the most fervent advocates of budget-cutting and immigration crackdowns without compromising their appeal to mainstream voters in a general election.
It is little wonder then that the Republican campaign at different points has elevated candidates, like Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and the business executive Herman Cain, who could speak to conservative activists but could not overcome the challenge of building an electoral majority.
The heavy schedule of televised debates, which replaced much of the on-the-ground campaigning of earlier races, sometimes made it difficult to tell if Mr. Cain, for example, was actually seeking the White House or instead raising his profile and selling books.
“It’s the rise of the blogosphere, the rise of reality TV, the self-publishing, self-broadcasting world,” said Kim Alfano, a media consultant to Mr. Daniels and other Republicans. “Everyone has a voice.”
Ms. Alfano said the cacophony of voices, extreme positions and unorthodox campaigns that emerged after the 2010 Tea Party movement could hobble Mr. Romney’s ability to compete with Mr. Obama if he prevails for the nomination.
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