Thursday, 12 January 2012

Mitt Romney maintains commanding lead in New Hampshire

COLUMBIA, S.C. -- Mitt Romney swept into South Carolina on Wednesday in pursuit of a confirming victory in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, buoyed by a second straight electoral triumph and bulging campaign coffers.


"I don't want to be overconfident," said the Republican front-runner. But increasingly, the former Massachusetts governor and Michigan native was talking about his plans for challenging President Barack Obama in the fall.


Underscoring his strong position, Romney's campaign announced that it had raised $56 million through Dec. 31 and is sitting on more than $19 million in cash. But his GOP rivals showed no sign of surrender.


Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich launched a fresh attack on Romney's business career at Bain Capital and a new TV ad painting him as a flip-flopper on abortion. A pro-Gingrich PAC called Winning Our Future was reported this week to be spending millions on TV and radio advertising attacking Romney in South Carolina.


Romney's lead here has eroded somewhat over the last week. It was at 46% for a two-day period before the Iowa caucuses, dropping to 43% in the two days after that contest. Paul also has dipped, from 23%, from the days before Iowa.


Santorum may have plateaued after an initial post-Iowa bounce, but Huntsman has jumped from 7% to 11%.


"All of the candidates behind Romney have a good chance finishing anywhere between second and fifth place," said UNH pollster Andrew Smith.


Eight percent of those surveyed are still undecided; only 44% say they are definite about their final choice, the poll found.


"New Hampshire voters historically have made up their minds in the final days before the election, and campaign activities in the final days matter, but this will be harder for Gingrich and Santorum as they are not running ads in the campaign’s final days," Smith said.


Romney has made electability a key part of his argument, but only 19% said that a candidate's ability to defeat President Obama is the most important characteristic for them, compared with 43% who say it is the candidate's position on the issues that matters.


In the New Hampshire primary, unlike Iowa's caucuses, Republicans and "undeclared" voters can vote in the Republican primary. Smith's sample assumes that registered Republicans will account for 57% of the total turnout.


Romney performs most strongly among that group, with 48% support compared with 14% for Paul and Santorum. Among undeclared voters, Romney's lead is 34%-21% over Paul, with Huntsman at 18%.


Romney holds on to 70% of the voters who supported him in the 2008 primary, the poll found. Among supporters of winning candidate John McCain, Romney gets 46%, compared with 14% for Paul and 10% for Gingrich.

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